Isbeddelka Cimiladu Ma Gumeysi Cusub baa?

W/Q: Abdishakur Daaha 

Qeylo-dhaan deegaan ayaa ka dhex alloosan caalamka, waxayna ka mid noqdeen ajendayaasha ugu waaweyn ee dunida ka taagan, iyadoo ay mudnaan sare ka leeyihiin golayaasha iyo go’aannada caalamiga ah, balse lagu kala aragti duwan yahay sidii loo wajihi lahaa. Isbeddelka cimiladu wuxuu noqday arrin si weyn u saameeyay dhammaan dhinacyada nolosha, isagoo wax ka beddelay hab-nololeedka dadweynaha, dhaqaalaha, iyo xitaa siyaasadda caalamiga ah. Dunida maanta waxay u kala qeybsan tahay laba heer, kuwa xoogga iyo kheyraadka leh (Global North) iyo kuwa la dulmiyo, oo taagta daran (Global South). Haddii hore gumeysigu u ahaan jiray mid ciidan, siyaasadeed, ama dhaqaale, maanta wuxuu yeeshay wejiyo kale oo aan si cad loo arki karin, balse si qoto dheer u saameynaya dunida. Isbeddelka cimiladu waa gumeysi cusub oo aan muuqan, wuxuuna dunida geliyay marxalad adag oo ay sabab u yihiin falalka ay dadku sameeyaan. Ma jiro qof, deegaan, ama noolaha kale oo ka badbaadi doona saameyntiisa, haddii aan si dhab ah, xilkasnimo leh, iyo dadaal mideysan loo wajahinin xal u heliddiisa.

Isbeddelka cimiladu sida xawliga uu ku socdo waa mid aan hore loo arag, waana dhibaato si taban u saameynaysa dunida oo dhan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, saameyntiisu si siman uma wada gaarayso bulshooyinka kala duwan. Wadamada horumaray, kuwaas oo warshadahooda si xowli ah u sii hurinayaan cimilada sii xumaanaysa, waxay haystaan dhaqaale, awood, iyo teknoolojiyad ay uga hortagaan saameynta daran ee isbeddelka cimilada. Dhanka kale, dalalka saboolka ah, inkasta oo ay yihiin kuwa ugu yar ee wasakheeya deegaanka, waa kuwa ugu badan ee ay waxyeelladu gaareyso. Waxaana halakeeyay abaaro aan kala joogsi lahayn, fatahaado aan la xakameyn karin, cunto yari, iyo burbur dhaqaale oo baahsan.

Su’aashu waxay tahay: Maxaa keenay in waddamada saboolka ah ay noqdaan dhibbanayaasha isbeddelka cimilada, halka waddamada horumaray ay sii wataan hormarka warshadaha waxsoosaarka, dhaqaale farabadana ay ka helaan? Miyaan la oran karin in isbeddelka cimiladu yahay nooc cusub oo gumeysi ah, mid aan qori iyo xoog lagu maquunin, balse lagu xakameeyo dhaqaalaha, siyaasadda, iyo xitaa nolosha mustaqbalka ee dadyowga aan codka lahayn?

Maqaalkani wuxuu falanqeyn doonaa  dadaaladda isbeddelka cimilada iyo hanaanka loo maray, isaga oo dib u eegaya taariikhda, siyaasadda caalamiga ah, iyo cadaalad-darrada nidaamka loo wajahay wax-kaqabashada isbeddelka cimilada. Hal su’aal oo muhiim ah ayaa dul hoganaysa dooddani: Abaaraha taagan, roobka yaraaday, kulaylka sii kordhaya; miyay yihiin wax aan hore loo arag, mise waa masiibooyinkii hore oo wejiyo kale yeeshay? Cimiladu waa taariikh taagnayd, jiil walbana waa la tacaalayay. Haddaba, miyuu isbeddelka maanta jira yahay mid cusub, mise waa sheeko hore oo dib loo curiyay, habka loola tacalaayana cid gaar ah looo hoos fadhiisto?

Waddamada Saboolka ah: Dhibbanayaal aan Dambi Lahayn

Warbixinnada cilmiga ah iyo xogta la ururiyey waxay muujinayaan in waddamada horumaray ay yihiin kuwa ugu badan ee wasakheeya hawada caalamka. Sida laga soo xigtay Global Carbon Atlas (2023), waddamada sida Mareykanka, Shiinaha, Yurub, iyo Hindiya ayaa si wadajir ah u sababaya 58% dhammaan qiiqa kaarboonka dunida. Dhinaca kale, warbixinta Hay’adda Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2021) waxay muujisay in waddamada dhaqaalahoodu hooseeyo, oo u badan Afrika, Aasiya, iyo Latin America, ay sababaan wax ka yar 4% qiiqa hawada, balse ay yihiin kuwa ugu badan ee ay waxyeelladu saameyso.

Sida lagu sheegay warbixinta (Global Climate Risk Index, 2023) Soomaaliya ayaa ka mid ah 10-ka dal ee ugu nugul  isbeddelka cimilada.  Waxaase la yaab leh in Soomaaliya ay ka mid tahay dalalka ugu yar ee qiiqa hawada ku kordhiya caalamka. Sida lagu xusay Qorshaha Qaran ee Isbedelka Cimilada Soomaalia ( NDC Somalia 2021), guud ahaan qiiqa Soomaaliya waa 53.70 MtCO₂eq, taasoo ka dhigan wax ka yar 0.03% qiiqa caalamka ku kordhiyaan.

Isbeddelka cimilada ee Soomaaliya waa mid aan la dhayalsan karin, isagoo sababay musiibooyin waaweyn oo nolosha iyo dhaqaalaha si ba’an u saameeyay. Intii u dhaxaysay 2016 iyo 2023, dalka wuxuu la kulmay afar xilli oo abaareed oo is xigxigay, taasoo horseeday in ka badan 3 milyan oo qof ay ku qasbanaadaan inay ka barakacaan deegaanadoodii. Abaartii 2022, oo ahayd middii ugu xumeyd muddo 40 sano ah, waxay dishay in ka badan 43,000 oo qof, 50% ka mid ahna waxay ahaayeen carruur ka yar 5 sano (FSNAU & FEWS NET, 2023). Isla sanadkaas, fatahaado ay sababeyn roobabkii ay keeneen  xaaladihii La Niña iyo El Niño waxay saameeyeen 1.7 milyan oo qof, iyada oo 700,000 ay guryahoodii ka barakaceen (UNOCHA, 2023). Sidoo kale, baddaha Soomaaliya oo la ogaadey in heer-kulkeedu sare u kacay 0.5°C ilaa 1.0°C (IPCC, 2023), waxay halis galinaysaa kalluumeysiga, halka dhulkii ay ku tiirsanaayeen beeraleyda iyo xoola-dhaqatadu uu si xowli ah u tayo-dhacay, taasoo khatar gelinaysa nolol maalmeedka in ka badan 60% shacabka Soomaaliyeed (World Bank, 2022). Waxaase nasiib darro ah, in saameynta cimiladu ay sii xoogeysanayso, haddana Soomaaliya wali waxay ka mid tahay dalalka ugu nugul dunida ee aan lahayn awood ay uga hortagto ama ugu adkaysato dhibaatooyinkan.

Marka la eego farqiga u dhexeeya waxyeellada iyo sababaha isbeddelka cimilada, maxaa keenay in waddamada saboolka ah ay noqdaan dhibbanayaasha ugu waaweyn, halka kuwa horumaray ay sii wataan dhaqaalahooda? Ma laga yaabaa in la joogo xilligii gumeysiga qarnigii 19-aad uu isu beddelay nooc cusub oo lagu xakameeyo siyaasadda, dhaqaalaha, iyo mustaqbalka dalalka soo koraya?

Dib u milicso Gumeysigii reer yurub iyo Waxyeelladii Deegaan laga dhaxlay

Gumeysiga waxaa inta badan lala xiriiriyaa xukun siyaasadeed, laakiin waxa uu sidoo kale si weyn u saameeyay deegaanka. Intii uu socday gumeysigii reer Yurub ee Afrika iyo Aasiya (qarnigii 19-aad ilaa 20-aad), kheyraad badan ayaa laga boobay dalalkaas si kor loogu qaado dhaqaalaha waddamada gumeysiga waday.

• Qodista kheyraadka dabiiciga ah: Waddamada Yurub waxay xakamayn jireen kheyraadka Afrika iyo Aasiya, iyaga oo beeraha maxalliga ah ka dhigay shaqaale la gumaysto. Warbixinta UNEP (2020) waxay sheegtay in gumeysigu sababay in laga gurto in ka badan 30 milyan oo hektar dhir ah oo laga jaray Afrika oo keliya intii u dhaxaysay 1880–1960.
• Dhuxusha iyo burburka keymaha: Sida laga soo xigtay FAO (2022), Afrika waxay lumisay in ka badan 67% kaymaheedii dabiiciga ahaa intii lagu jiray xilligii gumeysiga. Soomaaliya, oo horey u lahayd kaymo waaweyn, waxa ay lumisay 40% keymaheeda dabiiciga ah intii u dhaxaysay 1940–1980, waxaana laga jaray geedo qaaliga ah sida geedka (Acacia Bussei) si dhuxul looga sameeyo oo loo dhoofiyo.
• Warshadaynta iyo wasakhowga: Warshadayntii Yurub waxay sare u qaaday qiiqa CO₂, taasoo sababtay cimilada sii kululaaneysa. Sida laga soo xigtay Global Energy Review (2023), warshadayntii Ingiriiska iyo Faransiiska waxay sare u qaaday qiiqa CO₂ heer uu gaaro 280 ppm sanadkii 1850, halka maanta uu marayo 419 ppm.

Isbeddelka Cimilada iyo Gumeysiga Cusub

Warbixinta Climate Vulnerability Index (2023) waxay sheegtay in 70% waddamada ugu nugul isbeddelka cimilada ay yihiin kuwo horey loo gumaystay.

• Xakamaynta siyaasadaha cimilada: Waddamada horumaray waxay xukumaan heshiisyada caalamiga ah sida Heshiiskii Paris (Paris Agreement, 2015), halka waddamada saboolka ah aysan helin wax badan oo cod ah.
• Gumeysi cagaaran: Waddamada horumaray waxay bilaabeen inay xukumaan xalalka cimilada, iyaga oo shirkado waaweyn u diraya dalalka saboolka ah si ay uga faa’iideystaan tamarta la cusboonaysiin karo, balse aan si dhab ah loo horumarin deegaanka iyo bulshooyinka maxalliga ah.

Doodda ku saabsan dhimista ama joojinta isticmaalka shidaalka waxay u kala baxdaa saddex aragtiyood: in la sii wado isticmaalka shidaalka, in la yareeyo, ama in gebi ahaanba laga guuro loona leexdo tamarta cagaaran. Dalalka hodanka ah, oo muddo dheer ka macaashay shidaalka, si fudud ayay u heli karaan ilo tamar nadiif ah sida cadceedda, dabaysha, iyo nuclear-ka. Halka dalalka saboolka ah, oo weli la tacaalaya baahiyo aasaasi ah, aysan si dhaqso leh uga guuri karin shidaalka maadaama uu yahay laf-dhabarta nolol maalmeedkooda iyo dhaqaalahooda. Sidaas darteed, dooddu waxay isu beddeshay arrin caddaalad taabanaysa: Yaa bixinaya qarashka kala-guurka (si loogu jiheeyo tamarta cagaaran)? Sidee loola xisaabtamayaa dalalka mas’uuliyadda weyn ku leh isbeddelka cimilada, halka ay dhibbanayaal ka yihiin dalalka saboolka ah oo aan door muuqda ku lahayn wasakhowga hawada? Halkee se ku dambeyn doontaa xaqa ay bulsho walba u leedahay tamar nadiif ah oo la awoodi karo, deegaankana aan waxyeello u geysanayn?

Heshiisyada iyo Siyaasadaha Caalamiga ah ee Lagu Wajaho Isbeddelka Cimilada

Dunidu waxay sannado badan dadaal ugu jirtay sidii ay u xakamayn lahayd saameynta isbeddelka cimilada, taasoo horseedday in la dhiso sharciyo, heshiisyo iyo siyaasado caalami ah. Heshiiskii Montreal (1987) wuxuu xaddiday kiimikooyinka burburinaya lakabka ozone-ka, halka heshiiskii Kyoto (1997) uu ahaa kii ugu horreeyay ee sharciyan ku waajibinayay waddamada horumaray in ay dhimaan qiiqa gaaska wasakhowga. Shirkii Rio de Janeiro (1992) wuxuu dhidibada u taagay fikradda horumar waara, waxaana laga dhaxlay saddex heshiis oo muhiim ah, oo ay ka mid yihiin UNFCCC, CBD, iyo UNCCD. Heshiiskii Paris (2015) wuxuu dejiyay yoolal rasmi ah oo lagu xaddidayo kororka heerkulka caalamka ilaa 1.5°C, halka Sanduuqa Loss and Damage (2022) lagu aas-aasay si loo magdhabo waddamada ay saameynta cimiladu si xun u waxyeellaysay. Dhanka kale, Midowga Afrika wuxuu dejiyay Hindisaha Cimilada Afrika (2023), si loo mideeyo dadaallada qaaradda, halka Heshiiska Shidaalka Fosilka (2023) uu ujeedkiisu yahay in si tartiib ah loo joojiyo isticmaalka shidaalka wasakheeya hawada.

Inkasta oo heshiisyadan iyo siyaasadahaas ay yihiin kuwo muhiim ah, haddana fulintoodu wali waa mid gaabis ah. Heshiiskii Kyoto ma noqon mid la hirgeliyay si waxtar leh, maadaama waddamo waaweyn oo Maraykanka ka mid yahay ay ka baxeen. Ballanqaadyadii ka dhashay heshiiskii Paris, sida bixinta $100 bilyan sannadkii oo lagu taageero waddamada nugul, wali si buuxda looma fulin. Sanduuqii Loss and Damage wali ma helin nidaam cad oo lagu maamulo, taasoo dib u dhigaysa magdhowgii la filayay. Afrika wali ma helin maalgelintii loogu talogalay Sanduuqa Cimilada Afrika, halka waddamo badan ay ka cagajiidayaan inay qeyb ka noqdaan Heshiiska Shidaalka Fosilka. Inkasta oo dunidu ay horay u qaaday tallaabooyin muhiim ah, haddana ballamadii la qaaday iyo ficillada dhabtaa wali isku miisaan ma aha, taasoo keenaysa in khataraha cimiladu sii xoogaystaan.

Gabagabadii, isbeddelka cimilada ee maanta wuxuu muujinayaa in dalalka dunida aysan helin xuquuq siman oo ay kaga hortagaan saamaynta doorsoonka cimilada. Dalalka saboolka ah, oo ah kuwa ugu yar ee wasakheeya gibilka, ayaa ah kuwa ugu badan ee dhibanaha u ah isbeddelka cimilada, halka dalalka hodanka ah, oo door weyn ku leh sababaha isbeddelka cimilada, ay sii wadaan kor u qaadista warshadaha wax-soo-saarka, taasoo keeneysa sii xumaatinka xaaladda cimilada, iyagoo ka faa’iidaysanaya awooddooda dhaqaale. Haddii aan la helin nidaam caddaalad ku dhisan, waxaa suurtagal ah in arrintani isu beddesho nooc cusub oo gumeysi ah. Sida ay murtida Soomaaliyeed leedahay, “Geed aan taag lahayn, dabeyl kastaa way ruxdaa” haddii aan la siin dalalka nugul awood ay kaga hortagaan saamaynta isbeddelka cimilada, waxay noqon doonaan sidii geed aan taag lahayn oo dabayluhu ruxaan. Sidaas darteed, waa lagama maarmaan in la dhiso nidaam cadaalad ku saleysan oo damaanad qaadaya xuquuqda cimiladeed ee dalalka nugul. Xalka mushkiladaha cimilada waa in si dhab ah oo wadajir ah loo wajahaa, iyadoo dalalka sida weyn uga masuulka ah isbeddelka cimilada ay qaataan masuuliyadooda, ayna bixiyaan magdhowga ay xaqa u leeyihiin dalalka saboolka ah ee dhibanaha u ah saameynta Isbedelka Cimilada, tasoo sahleysa xaqiijinta cadaalad cimiladeed iyo dhisidda deegaan badqaba oo loo siman yahay.

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